Turning point

The renewed focus on securing overseas supply comes as US metals policy enters what analysts see as a turning point. BMO analysts Helen Alamos and George Heppel said in a note on Tuesday that President Trump’s reassertion of the Monroe Doctrine as part of the US National Security Strategy marks an inflection point in how markets assess future US metals inventories.

They said investors are increasingly betting that the large volumes of metal accumulated by the US over the past year, particularly copper, will soon be released, easing tight supply elsewhere and pushing prices lower. However, the analysts cautioned against assuming a drawdown is inevitable, arguing inventories could continue to rise over the months and years ahead, potentially approaching levels last seen during the Cold War.

“The pathway for US metals inventory from here is now probably the single most important debate for the metals complex right now,” Alamos and Heppel said, noting that Trump’s second term has already seen the largest build so far in copper, followed by platinum and palladium.

Congolese officials said the list went through several rounds of internal vetting and represents Kinshasa’s most direct offer yet to Washington, adding they were not authorized to speak publicly.

China’s hold

Chinese companies such as CMOC, Zijin and Huayou dominate copper and cobalt production in the DRC, where the metals are often mined together, while US firms have historically stayed away because of conflict, corruption and logistical hurdles.

Kinshasa hopes American capital can dilute that dominance after years of Chinese expansion. In 2007, Congo granted Chinese miners tax breaks running to 2040 in exchange for $9 billion in promised investment, of which about $6 billion materialized, as Western governments showed little appetite to curb sales to Chinese buyers.